The seasonally adjusted BNZ-BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index dropped to 50.5 in April 2026 from 53.2 in March, marking the weakest expansion in months as fuel costs surge.
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The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research states that the free trade agreement with India functions primarily as strategic positioning in a fragmented global economy rather than an immediate export booster.
The Westpac-McDermott Miller Consumer Confidence Index plunged 14.3 points to 80.4 in the June 2026 quarter.
New Zealand's gross domestic product is forecast to grow between 0.7 and 1.0 percent in the March 2026 quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis.
The seasonally adjusted BNZ-BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index dropped to 50.5 in April 2026 from 53.2 in March and 54.8 in February, marking the weakest expansion in months as fuel costs surge.
New orders contracted to 48.2 — the lowest since May 2025 — while deliveries of raw materials fell to 46.5, the lowest since July 2024, according to the BNZ-Manufacturing-Snapshot April 2026. These were the lowest levels in nearly a year. Production eased to 51.7 while employment strengthened to 53.4.
BNZ head of research Stephen Toplis said the sector had held up well until now.
The Performance of Manufacturing Index had been remarkably robust with the headline reading for March down on previous months but still solidly above the break-even line. However, we feared it was only a matter of time before the wheels started to fall off and, alas, the April survey indicates that time may now have arrived.
Petrol prices have jumped 36 percent since the Iran conflict began, according to ECONFIX analysis. The average for 91 octane reached $3.29 per litre by late April, up from around $2.50 in late February. New Zealand imports nearly all its refined fuel.
63.6 percent of April 2026 PMI respondents highlighted negative influences on business performance, up from 62 percent in March, with many comments focusing on the war against Iran impacting freight, fuel costs and raw material deliveries, the BNZ-BusinessNZ survey found. BusinessNZ director of advocacy Catherine Beard noted the war in Iran and fuel price impacts as increasing concerns for firms in April.
Manufacturing directly employs more than 220,000 people in New Zealand and contributes around 8 to 10 percent of GDP while accounting for 60 percent of exports, according to government data. Filled jobs in the sector fell 1.5 percent year on year by March, a loss totalling 3,479 positions, per Stats NZ employment indicators.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has warned of second-round inflation from fuel prices. These make up about 4 percent of the CPI basket, the RBNZ noted, with higher costs for inputs like fertiliser and shipping adding further pressure.
New Zealand's April reading of 50.5 sat below the UK at 52.3, the United States at 51.3 and Japan at 51.6, according to BusinessNZ and Trading Economics. Australia recorded 49.8.
Forward orders point to contraction ahead. This raises the risk of further job losses and slower growth. The sector remains exposed to global supply shocks.
